Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7653…e75e world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%21W / 70L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$9
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$17
other 21% −$8
politics 19% −$2
sports 13% +$2
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 24 +35.5% +22.6% 25% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 82 +9.5% -0.9% 22% 2% -9.4%
all 91 +8.6% -1.8% 23% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -11.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -19.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -27.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses21 / 70
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage273d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $109 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $103 −$11 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $144 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $114 +$3 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $13 −$1 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $220 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $187 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $114 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $67 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $46 +$26 +58%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $139 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +9%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $88 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $85 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $57 +$2 +3%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $84 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $76 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $76 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $76 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $126 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $368 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $146 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $262 −$7 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $82 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $85 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $86 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $77 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $25 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $102 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $83 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $93 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $57 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $71 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $97 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $92 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $55 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.22 · official $82.35 (match) · 390 history records