Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7658…e142 crypto 161 markets active 3h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$5 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%95W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$9
other 2% −$7
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 71% -4.1%
≤30d 31 -2.0% -11.3% 61% 61% -10.5%
≤90d 159 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 60% -11.3%
all 159 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 60% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 60% -11.3%
10% -20.7% 60% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 60% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 36% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses95 / 64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 23¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-65%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 22 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 21 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.10 · official $5.88 (match) · 332 history records