Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x765b…6bf8 other 31 markets active 12h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,894 (-58%) realized −$2,959 · open +$65
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 54% −$2,710
other 25% +$65
sports 16% −$69
world 3% −$160
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +90.6% +72.5% 33% 33% -21.0%
all 6 -3.1% -12.3% 17% 17% -87.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 17% -87.3%
10% -20.7% 17% -88.5%
15% -28.4% 17% -89.6%
20% -35.4% 17% -90.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$639 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,259
Realized−$2,959
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions25
Markets (closed)6 / 31
History coverage155d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $550 $707 +$157 (+29%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $20 $99 +$79 (+397%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $66 $53 −$13 (-19%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $38 −$17 (-31%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $29 +$8 (+40%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17¢ $28 $12 −$16 (-57%)
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $6 −$32 (-84%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $5 −$12 (-69%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $372 −$22 -6%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 29 $150 +$256 +170%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $303 −$303 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 29 $100 −$90 -90%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $2,710 −$2,710 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 12h
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes $5 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 13h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $5 20h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 20h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes $10 20h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 20h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $47 20h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,258.84 · official $1,258.84 (match) · 86 history records