Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x765b…f80e other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$141
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$47
sports 40% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.0% -24.0% 56% 41% -22.3%
≤30d 29 -10.4% -19.0% 59% 45% -21.2%
≤90d 29 -10.4% -19.0% 59% 45% -21.2%
all 29 -10.4% -19.0% 59% 45% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 45% -21.2%
10% -26.7% 34% -28.7%
15% -33.8% 21% -35.6%
20% -40.3% 14% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $91 −$80 -88%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $63 −$46 -72%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $65 +$9 +14%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $122 +$6 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $46 +$11 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $47 +$19 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 +$55 +289%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 +$5 +19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$8 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 −$14 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $40 −$31 -78%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $53 +$31 +59%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $45 +$6 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $42 +$3 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$12 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $73 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $63 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $65 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $122 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $46 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $84 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $55 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.62 · official $10.62 (match) · 61 history records