Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
76 0x765f…594c sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$406 (-7%) realized −$464 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$117
14 days−$481
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$369
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -63.5% -66.9% 33% 0% -58.9%
≤90d 14 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 43% -21.8%
all 30 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 47% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 47% -16.8%
10% -23.5% 43% -24.7%
15% -30.9% 37% -32.0%
20% -37.6% 30% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$164 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$464
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage176d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 29¢ 36¢ $210 $268 +$58 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $118 −$117 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $408 −$399 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $365 +$35 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $244 −$242 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $188 +$55 +29%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $162 +$18 +11%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $405 −$397 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $158 −$157 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $534 −$532 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $416 +$120 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $231 +$950 +411%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 03 $140 +$130 +92%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $152 −$2 -2%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 29 $98 +$52 +53%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 18 $310 −$310 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 18 $448 +$352 +79%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 16 $297 +$153 +52%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights Mar 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $73 +$30 +41%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 01 $61 +$33 +54%
Rio Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Matteo Berrettini Feb 20 $61 −$1 -2%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 11 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 11 $55 +$30 +54%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 11 $77 +$35 +45%
76ers vs. Mavericks Feb 07 $26 +$24 +92%
Oregon vs. Indiana Feb 07 $32 +$18 +59%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Jan 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 30¢ $75 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $88 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $10 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $39 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $118 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $408 11d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $365 18d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $244 32d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $188 39d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 90¢ $162 45d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $10 53d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $394 53d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $158 55d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $534 58d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $416 60d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 19¢ $190 75d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $2 75d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $2 75d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $9 75d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $3 75d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $10 75d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $10 75d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $5 75d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Celtics 52¢ $140 80d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines SELL Michigan Wolverines 75¢ $150 80d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 76¢ $152 80d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 65¢ $98 87d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 56¢ $310 91d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 56¢ $448 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.03 · official $253.34 · 60 history records