Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x765f…1508 sports 671 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,932 (+4%) realized +$10,675 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate69%427W / 194L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day71.4pace
Fees−$2,294est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$18,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,401
7 days−$67
14 days+$5,969
30 days+$10,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$11,022
other 9% +$616
politics 3% +$1,066
crypto 2% +$695
tech 1% +$884
world 1% −$64
culture 1% −$208
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 50% -9.7%
≤30d 351 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 63% -3.4%
≤90d 621 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 66% -4.3%
all 621 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 66% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 66% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 53% -13.5%
15% -23.0% 36% -21.8%
20% -30.6% 20% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$309 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$18,222
Realized+$10,675
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses427 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,294
Open positions58
Markets (closed)621 / 671
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$390
Trades / day71.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 35¢ 58¢ $1,285 $2,105 +$820 (+64%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $1,995 $1,777 −$218 (-11%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $816 $883 +$66 (+8%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $622 $767 +$145 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $498 $729 +$230 (+46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $598 $714 +$116 (+19%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 55¢ 76¢ $456 $634 +$178 (+39%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $498 $632 +$133 (+27%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $891 $595 −$296 (-33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $748 $578 −$170 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $515 $567 +$52 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $498 $556 +$58 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 68¢ $492 $525 +$33 (+7%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $498 $495 −$3 (-1%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 61¢ 59¢ $498 $483 −$15 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $416 $482 +$66 (+16%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $390 $446 +$56 (+14%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 50¢ 84¢ $249 $419 +$169 (+68%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $676 $379 −$297 (-44%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $262 $375 +$113 (+43%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $598 $335 −$263 (-44%)
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $323 $335 +$12 (+4%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 35¢ 40¢ $249 $281 +$32 (+13%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 40¢ 44¢ $249 $277 +$28 (+11%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 63¢ $249 $242 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $261 −$261 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $504 +$286 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $492 −$295 -60%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 17 $753 −$70 -9%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $249 −$18 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $498 +$169 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 −$504 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $395 −$395 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $505 −$505 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 −$504 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $755 +$415 +55%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $500 +$59 +12%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $504 +$274 +54%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,796 +$145 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $502 +$137 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $503 +$241 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $507 +$576 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $758 +$737 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $249 −$249 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $249 +$685 +275%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $503 +$208 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $498 −$498 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $504 +$134 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$72 -70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$45 -45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $68 −$4 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $70 −$2 -3%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $354 +$344 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $504 +$287 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $504 +$313 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $502 +$145 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $502 +$137 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $503 +$199 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $502 +$180 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $606 +$427 +70%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $253 +$245 +97%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $253 +$255 +101%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $501 +$113 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $251 +$65 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $502 +$145 +29%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 13 $498 +$122 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $72 3h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $790 8h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $261 10h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 10h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 10h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 10h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 10h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $1 12h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $0 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $504 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 84¢ $464 13h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $1 13h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $2 14h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $5 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $498 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $177 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 17h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 24¢ $234 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $492 17h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $22 20h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,221.79 · official $18,247.46 (match) · 3500 history records