Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7660…7a01 sports 41 markets active 19h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-2%) realized −$128 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$33
politics 45% −$6
sports 6% −$159
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.6% +0.9% 11% 11% -8.6%
≤30d 9 +11.6% +0.9% 11% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 9 +11.6% +0.9% 11% 11% -8.6%
all 40 -18.4% -26.2% 28% 8% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 8% -11.6%
10% -33.2% 8% -20.1%
15% -39.7% 8% -27.8%
20% -45.6% 8% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage627d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,089 $1,088 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$58 +105%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $427 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Oct 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Oct 06 $8 +$8 +100%
Braves vs. Nationals Sep 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $3 $0 -3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 02 $2 $0 -14%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $118 +$97 +82%
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks Jan 04 $121 −$121 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Jan 03 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,089 18h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $310 18h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $669 18h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $310 43h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $670 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $426 44h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $487 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $55 44h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $427 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $488 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $461 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $576 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $462 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $577 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 2d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 2d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 257d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY DET 50¢ $8 270d
Braves vs. Nationals BUY Nationals 39¢ $7 276d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $6 278d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 361d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 403d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 404d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 408d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 409d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 410d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,088.45 · official $1,088.45 (match) · 83 history records