Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x7666…9fc0 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+9%) realized +$2 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$122
sports 21% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.0% -34.0% 20% 20% +106.1%
≤30d 8 -24.9% -32.0% 25% 25% +86.2%
≤90d 8 -24.9% -32.0% 25% 25% +86.2%
all 8 -24.9% -32.0% 25% 25% +86.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 25% +86.2%
10% -38.5% 25% +68.4%
15% -44.5% 25% +52.2%
20% -49.9% 25% +37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +106% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +106% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$4 · ×18.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.25 per $1 lost it wins $6.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)8 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 68¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
France to score first vs. Iraq? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
France to win the second half? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 47¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 36¢ 52¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $61 +$108 +176%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $19 +$26 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $5 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 2h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 2h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 80¢ $46 7d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.61 · official $90.39 (match) · 23 history records