Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7668…9db2 sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$193 (-18%) realized −$186 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$40
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$9
crypto 24% −$96
other 4% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -18.9% -26.6% 25% 25% -14.2%
≤30d 61 -26.2% -33.2% 21% 21% -19.0%
≤90d 61 -26.2% -33.2% 21% 21% -19.0%
all 71 -21.3% -28.8% 23% 23% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 23% -20.4%
10% -35.6% 23% -28.0%
15% -41.8% 23% -34.9%
20% -47.5% 23% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 55
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage211d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 54¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes $14 $7 −$7 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $49 +$81 +165%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$24 +159%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $30 −$17 -57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $36 +$51 +144%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $17 −$12 -69%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 −$1 -3%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $18 −$17 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$5 +129%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$3 -12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 −$3 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$39 +135%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $19 +$72 +370%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $14 +$17 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 10 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $20 14m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $14 17m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $131 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $40 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $49 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $24 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $25 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $3 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over $1 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Under 85¢ $87 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $12 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Under 34¢ $12 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $18 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 34¢ $36 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 14¢ $5 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $17 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $17 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $20 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 12h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $30 12h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $49 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 28h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.93 · official $55.93 (match) · 153 history records