Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
76 0x7669…8390 crypto 883 markets active 6d ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,026 (+6%) realized +$1,033 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%463W / 418L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$635
other 0% −$9
world 0% −$11
sports 0% +$3
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -34.6% -40.9% 0% 0% -40.9%
≤30d 2 +593.1% +527.1% 50% 50% +155.0%
≤90d 442 -0.7% -10.1% 52% 47% -6.2%
all 881 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 49% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 49% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 42% -15.2%
15% -22.5% 35% -23.4%
20% -30.1% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1,033
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses463 / 418
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)881 / 883
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 881 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $56 $51 −$5 (-8%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$31 +286%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 03 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 03 $13 +$25 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 03 $17 +$12 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 03 $13 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 03 $9 +$12 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $3 +$6 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 02 $13 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 02 $15 +$22 +147%
BNB Up or Down - April 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 02 $8 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 02 $9 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 02 $10 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 02 $2 +$7 +355%
BNB Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 02 $8 +$1 +13%
BNB Up or Down - April 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 02 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 02 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 02 $8 +$6 +79%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 02 $9 +$6 +67%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 02 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 02 $20 +$4 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 02 $13 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 01 $16 +$11 +67%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 01 $7 +$8 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 01 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $40 +$15 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 9d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? SELL Yes 18¢ $38 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.07 · official $52.07 (match) · 3500 history records