Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x766a…c3d7 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$4
politics 19% −$6
economics 5% −$1
sports 3% −$3
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 33% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +1.4% -8.2% 16% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 112 +0.7% -8.9% 10% 8% -9.6%
all 114 +0.7% -8.9% 10% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 8% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 6% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage92d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$6 +29%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,336 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 02 $130 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $266 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $280 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $258 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $271 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $277 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $275 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $267 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $479 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $271 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 29h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 35h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $180 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $46 7d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $46 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.47 · official $53.47 (match) · 338 history records