Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x766a…ae64 sports 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$646 (+2%) realized +$635 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%220W / 22L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$104
14 days+$193
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$683
other 7% −$73
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +2.0% -7.7% 97% 3% -6.3%
≤30d 95 +9.0% -1.4% 91% 12% -6.6%
≤90d 242 +4.8% -5.2% 91% 10% -7.4%
all 242 +4.8% -5.2% 91% 10% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 10% -7.4%
10% -14.3% 6% -16.3%
15% -22.5% 4% -24.4%
20% -30.1% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$27 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$913
Realized+$635
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses220 / 22
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions6
Markets (closed)242 / 248
History coverage88d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: VSC (-1.5) vs Red Feet (+1.5) Vasco Esports 49¢ 50¢ $202 $204 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vasco Esports 49¢ 50¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner Red Feet 49¢ 50¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Red Feet 48¢ 50¢ $90 $94 +$5 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Wampirki 49¢ 50¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 1 Winner Red Feet 49¢ 50¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Matthew Dellavedova vs. Kuan-Yi Lee: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $67 +$1 +2%
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 27 $2 $0 +2%
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 27 $588 +$12 +2%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) Jun 27 $73 +$1 +2%
Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $48 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Lee (-1.5) vs Hosogi (+1.5) Jun 27 $25 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) Jun 26 $196 +$4 +2%
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $4 $0 +2%
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $26 +$1 +2%
Petra Marcinko vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $68 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 26 $608 +$11 +2%
Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $75 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5) Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Giannicola Misasi vs. George Lazarov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Bianchi/Perez (-1.5) vs Jecan/Pavel (+1.5) Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Makke vs. Robert: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Tiphanie Lemaitre vs. Kristina Mladenovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Lemaitre vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Makke vs. Robert: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Louay Makke vs. Nicolas Robert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Lemaitre vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Makke vs. Robert: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Lemaitre vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Perez/Schuurs (-1.5) vs Tang/Zhang (+1.5) Jun 24 $96 +$98 +102%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Melo/Molteni vs Buse/Darderi Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Vaissaud (-1.5) vs Havermans (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Daniel Michalski vs. Jelle Sels: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Ram/Salisbury (-1.5) vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin (+1.5) Jun 24 $24 $0 +2%
Britt Du Pree vs. Julie Pastikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $77 +$2 +2%
Cherubino vs. Winter: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $196 +$4 +2%
Noah Lopez Cherubino vs. Edward Winter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $395 +$5 +1%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Galloway/Peers (-1.5) vs Arribage/Olivetti (+1.5) Jun 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 20 $91 +$2 +3%
Will Paraguay win the World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $111 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $198 +$5 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 18 $339 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $397 +$8 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Gonzalez/McDonald vs. Faria/Rocha: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $173 −$29 -16%
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $19 −$7 -39%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $443 −$123 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 49¢ $45 27m
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 49¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 49¢ $98 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 49¢ $3 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $35 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $35 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 1 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $1 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $29 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $29 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 1 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $50 1h
Map Handicap: VSC (-1.5) vs Red Feet (+1.5) BUY Vasco Esports 49¢ $196 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 1 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 1 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner BUY Red Feet 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 48¢ $91 1h
Map Handicap: VSC (-1.5) vs Red Feet (+1.5) BUY Vasco Esports 49¢ $6 1h
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 3h
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $196 3h
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 3h
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $185 3h
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $107 3h
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 3h
Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $38 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $913.15 · official $913.15 (match) · 982 history records