Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

76 0x766c…7fea sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,640 (-51%) realized −$1,640 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip

Net edge-67%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$810per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$41est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-64.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-60.4%	-64.1%	25%	25%	-59.2%
≤30d	4	-60.4%	-64.1%	25%	25%	-59.2%
≤90d	4	-60.4%	-64.1%	25%	25%	-59.2%
all	4	-60.4%	-64.1%	25%	25%	-59.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-64.1%	25%	-59.2%
10%	-67.6%	25%	-63.1%
15%	-70.7%	25%	-66.7%
20%	-73.6%	25%	-69.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -55% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$452 vs −$647 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.23 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,640

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$41

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$810

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$807	−$300	-37%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$772	+$452	+59%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$1,440	−$1,419	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$222	−$222	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$537	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	93¢	$501	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	33¢	$306	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,224	2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$772	2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	46¢	$70	9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	50¢	$1,370	9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	38¢	$222	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records