Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x766d…fd2d crypto 568 markets active 19h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-1%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%322W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$117
14 days−$151
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$244
sports 5% −$61
other 0% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 39% -17.5%
≤30d 246 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 39% -17.1%
≤90d 400 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 42% -16.0%
all 568 -5.1% -14.2% 57% 43% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 43% -12.7%
10% -22.4% 34% -21.1%
15% -29.9% 26% -28.7%
20% -36.8% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses322 / 246
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)568 / 568
History coverage165d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 568 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$14 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$20 +94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$6 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$10 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$17 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$11 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $22 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1714 history records