Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x766f…b98d
crypto · 9 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$20 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% −$23
other 35% +$10
sports 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 24h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 33h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 34h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 38% -37.4%
≤30d 8 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 38% -37.4%
≤90d 8 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 38% -37.4%
all 8 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 38% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 38% -37.4%
10% -43.3% 38% -43.4%
15% -48.8% 38% -48.9%
20% -53.8% 25% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.96 · official $11.96 (match) · 14 history records