Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7670…6522 other 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-10%) realized −$89 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%88W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$4
sports 10% −$72
crypto 4% −$30
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.2% -33.3% 36% 36% -12.5%
≤30d 43 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% -44.8%
≤90d 226 -14.0% -22.2% 39% 38% -19.3%
all 226 -14.0% -22.2% 39% 38% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 38% -19.3%
10% -29.6% 38% -27.0%
15% -36.4% 38% -34.0%
20% -42.7% 33% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses88 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage62d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 +47%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$1 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 +$3 +119%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 +$1 +76%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $4 −$4 -93%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +158%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 +$3 +128%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 12d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 13d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 13d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 13d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 14d
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $112 16d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 19d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 22d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 22d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 22d
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.83 · official $7.80 · 404 history records