Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x7671…9798 other 134 markets active 3d ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+6%) realized +$23 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%50W / 64L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$11
world 15% −$1
tech 13% −$2
politics 13% +$15
sports 12% +$15
crypto 10% −$4
weather 8% +$10
economics 2% −$7
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -45.5% -50.7% 25% 8% -29.2%
≤30d 73 +2.7% -7.1% 38% 27% -8.7%
≤90d 114 +9.8% -0.7% 44% 27% -3.2%
all 114 +9.8% -0.7% 44% 27% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 27% -3.2%
10% -10.2% 25% -12.5%
15% -18.9% 21% -20.9%
20% -26.8% 20% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses50 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)114 / 134
History coverage57d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 42¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 47¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? No 77¢ 41¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? No 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 22¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 21¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 40¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$4 +91%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$4 +400%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $4 $0 +3%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +267%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 04 $1 +$4 +235%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 +$4 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombia May 31 $1 +$4 +405%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 31 $1 +$4 +291%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 3d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Algeria to win the second half? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 77¢ $4 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $0 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $3 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 4d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 4d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 22¢ $1 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $1 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes $0 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 28¢ $1 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 35¢ $2 7d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 34¢ $2 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 33¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.63 · official $64.64 (match) · 307 history records