Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7678…e5f0 politics 200 markets active 39d ago coverage 238d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 237d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76,084 (-4%) realized −$81,723 · open +$5,639
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%108W / 375L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,607per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$25,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 238d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$24,451
other 30% −$105,017
world 7% −$37,756
sports 4% −$32,225
tech 4% +$104
crypto 2% −$13,177
economics 1% −$938
culture 0% −$1,233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -82.0% -83.7% 2% 2% -97.7%
≤30d 279 -82.0% -83.7% 2% 2% -97.7%
≤90d 282 -80.9% -82.7% 3% 3% -94.2%
all 483 -39.2% -45.0% 22% 11% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.0% 11% -37.9%
10% ← realistic here -50.2% 10% -43.9%
15% -55.0% 8% -49.3%
20% -59.4% 7% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -111% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,890 vs −$2,017 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$25,654
Realized−$81,723
Unrealized+$5,639
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses108 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions35
Markets (closed)483 / 200
History coverage238d ⚠
Avg bet$8,607
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 59¢ 99¢ $4,931 $8,280 +$3,349 (+68%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 64¢ 100¢ $3,322 $5,171 +$1,849 (+56%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 62¢ $1,823 $2,270 +$447 (+24%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 69¢ 99¢ $1,344 $1,936 +$592 (+44%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $1,823 $1,377 −$447 (-24%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $11 $89 +$78 (+694%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $11 $81 +$70 (+625%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $11 $69 +$57 (+514%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $11 $42 +$31 (+280%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $35 +$24 (+211%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $30 +$19 (+169%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+45%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+45%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+45%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+31%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 351 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 29 $1,921 +$1,053 +55%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 29 $1,800 +$1,165 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Reformed Political Party win the fourth most seats in the 202 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? Jun 29 $172 −$168 -98%
Will Craig Tucker make a trade during South Park's prediction market e Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential electio Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? Jun 29 $2,382 −$2,382 -100%
Will Cho Kuk be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 29 $1,897 −$1,897 -100%
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlan Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th Jun 29 $3,894 −$3,894 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 29 $2,856 −$2,892 -101%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jun 29 $2,328 −$25,127 -1079%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 29 $238 −$238 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 29 $212 +$241 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Blue Bloc win by 1–4 seats? Jun 29 $0 −$100 -31154%
Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 29 $624 −$624 -100%
Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday? Jun 29 $2,852 −$2,852 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 29 $1,897 −$1,897 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be the People's Power Party candidate for president Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Luis Arce win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 29 $1,622 −$1,622 -100%
Saints vs. Seahawks Jun 29 $1,996 −$1,996 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 17? Jun 29 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Steven Fulop win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 29 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 29 $70 −$232 -331%
Will Won Hee-ryong win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 29 $563 −$1,183 -210%
Will Kim Kyong-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus Jun 29 $4,138 −$4,138 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%? Jun 29 $1,727 −$1,727 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the R Jun 29 $79 −$79 -100%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday? Jun 29 $190 −$190 -100%
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $100-108m? Jun 29 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Lee Nak-yon win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential electi Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 29 $624 −$624 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6? Jun 29 $613 −$613 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $132 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 39d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $40 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 39d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $36 39d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 39d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $44 39d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,549 68d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $269 117d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $697 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $3,831 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 98¢ $942 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 98¢ $10 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 98¢ $701 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $380 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $1,452 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $679 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $24 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 91¢ $28 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $65 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 96¢ $24 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 96¢ $79 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 96¢ $54 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $28 118d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 90¢ $40 118d
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $7,273 118d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 41¢ $718 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,653.73 · official $25,653.73 (match) · 3500 history records