Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x767a…8ac5 sports 460 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,870 (+4%) realized +$7,902 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%245W / 212L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$2,880est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,889
7 days−$8,422
14 days−$4,766
30 days+$2,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$7,297
other 8% −$1,001
world 0% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 42% -21.8%
≤30d 315 -2.0% -11.3% 53% 52% -8.0%
≤90d 457 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 53% -6.5%
all 457 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 53% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 53% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 47% -15.4%
15% -26.8% 40% -23.6%
20% -34.0% 34% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$268 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized+$7,902
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses245 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,880
Open positions3
Markets (closed)457 / 460
History coverage42d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners No 55¢ 52¢ $184 $173 −$11 (-6%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics No 45¢ 44¢ $128 $125 −$3 (-2%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 53¢ 36¢ $58 $39 −$18 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $946 +$122 +13%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $404 +$541 +134%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 18 $198 +$208 +105%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 17 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $381 −$381 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $346 −$346 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $335 −$335 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 17 $1,825 −$56 -3%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $543 −$512 -94%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $501 −$501 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 17 $457 −$457 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $593 −$593 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 17 $232 −$229 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 17 $267 +$269 +101%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $300 +$163 +55%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $500 +$549 +110%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,303 +$542 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $851 +$454 +53%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1,326 +$117 +9%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $381 +$451 +118%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $689 +$186 +27%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 17 $507 +$183 +36%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $297 −$297 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 16 $388 −$388 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 16 $495 −$495 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $510 −$510 -100%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $510 −$510 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $937 −$937 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $997 −$997 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 16 $516 +$448 +87%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $255 −$233 -91%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 16 $270 −$266 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $509 −$485 -95%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $491 +$518 +106%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,698 +$301 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $793 +$146 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $153 +$292 +190%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 16 $264 −$260 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $255 +$345 +135%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $481 +$744 +154%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $505 −$125 -25%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $162 +$226 +139%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $503 −$341 -68%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $254 +$337 +132%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $780 +$559 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs BUY No 45¢ $10 17m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 56¢ $108 18m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 55¢ $4 20m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 55¢ $11 20m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 54¢ $63 20m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs BUY No 45¢ $9 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs BUY No 45¢ $112 25m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 90¢ $1,068 32m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $946 50m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $946 51m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $404 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. SELL No 100¢ $405 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 48¢ $198 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 56¢ $232 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. SELL No 100¢ $536 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 49¢ $267 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $300 10h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 92¢ $1,049 10h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 43¢ $500 10h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $346 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,303 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $1,081 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $15 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $196 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $4 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $4 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $4 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $2 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $849 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $593 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.07 · official $338.07 (match) · 1634 history records