Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x767c…dc56 sports 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$46 (-1%) realized −$86 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%90W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$129
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$114
crypto 27% −$91
world 8% +$233
other 6% −$127
finance 3% −$4
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -19.6% -27.2% 45% 42% -21.7%
≤30d 38 -19.6% -27.2% 45% 42% -21.7%
≤90d 147 -27.1% -34.1% 38% 33% -24.6%
all 204 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 39% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 39% -11.4%
10% -29.8% 33% -19.9%
15% -36.6% 29% -27.6%
20% -42.8% 23% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses90 / 114
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)204 / 210
History coverage107d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 23¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 38¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Martin Landaluce vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 57¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Alexander Bublik 44¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 31¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 53¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Curaçao 49¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Sinja Kraus 43¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 30¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Under 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $26 −$5 -20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $29 +$31 +104%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $71 −$54 -76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$16 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $22 +$9 +38%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $10 −$4 -35%
Set Handicap: Kicker (-1.5) vs Hardt (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$13 +80%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 +$11 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Martin Landaluce vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$13 +86%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$21 -81%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $130 +$96 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$5 +25%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $37 −$10 -27%
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$4 -70%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Apr 24 $35 −$5 -14%
Jannik Sinner vs. Benjamin Bonzi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $8 +$12 +149%
Mexico City: James Duckworth vs Stefano Napolitano Apr 24 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 31 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$6,600 in March? Mar 31 $13 −$12 -89%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 31 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in March? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $27 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 49¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 61¢ $21 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 75¢ $26 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 6h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $15 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $15 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $16 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 10¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Dusan Lajovic 22¢ $3 2d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 14¢ $2 2d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 60¢ $14 2d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 42¢ $10 2d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 27¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.80 · official $34.14 (match) · 533 history records