Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x767c…058c politics 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate15%10W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$3
other 28% −$4
sports 20% −$1
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
world 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 65 -5.3% -14.3% 15% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses10 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage373d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 07 $74 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 13 $294 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $1 $0 -14%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $71 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 03 $72 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 04 $2 $0 -5%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $150 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Sep 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 31 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 32h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 18d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $74 120d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $71 125d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $71 138d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 141d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 142d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $71 143d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 143d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 143d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 144d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 145d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 149d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 150d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 153d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $72 154d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $72 156d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 156d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $73 158d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $72 159d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $72 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? BUY No 100¢ $74 162d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.89 · official $70.89 (match) · 283 history records