Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x767e…5d2d
other · 182 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$134 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,863
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses107 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)171 / 182
Avg bet$1,328
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 11 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 92¢ $871 $870 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $510 $495 −$15 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 13¢ 12¢ $312 $300 −$12 (-4%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? No 99¢ 96¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 90¢ 66¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 99¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
US civil war in 2025? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? No 93¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on July 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 42¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,866 −$32 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,774 −$5 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 21? Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 10 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 21? Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro Martinez Jun 10 $11 +$1 +5%
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 21? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? Apr 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30? Mar 30 $11 −$1 -9%
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30? Mar 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30? Mar 30 $22 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Mar 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Mar 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Mar 30 $10 $0 -2%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Mar 30 $11 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 13? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Mar 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Mar 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $15,092 −$8 -0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Mar 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $4 $0 -8%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Mar 11 $4 $0 -8%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $6,369 $0 +0%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? Mar 11 $4 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Mar 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? Mar 11 $3 −$1 -27%
French election called by June 30, 2026? Mar 11 $4 $0 +8%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? Mar 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $28,722 −$11 -0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $15,097 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $6 −$1 -11%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Mar 04 $6 $0 -3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $6 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Mar 02 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $8 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 02 $9 $0 -1%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 me Mar 02 $16 $0 -2%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Mar 02 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 02 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Mar 02 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 02 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% −$6
economics 21% −$9
other 15% −$71
sports 14% −$4
crypto 2% −$3
world 0% −$30
weather 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 0m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $100 5m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $1,070 6m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 11m
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $215 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $1,946 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 13¢ $323 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $523 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $686 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $88 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $8 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $24 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $164 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $8 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $184 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $232 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $18 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $8 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $24 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $3,391 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $528 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1,044 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $197 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $10 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1,774 27h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $20 41h
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.9% -5.1% 83% 17% -9.9%
≤30d 12 +4.9% -5.1% 83% 17% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 9% -10.2%
all 171 -3.0% -12.2% 63% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 13% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,863.37 · official $1,863.37 (match) · 773 history records