Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7683…f31f other 29 markets active 15h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1
world 39% +$6
economics 7% $0
politics 7% −$3
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 17% -7.0%
≤30d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 14% -7.3%
≤90d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 14% -7.3%
all 29 -1.3% -10.7% 24% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 7% -9.0%
10% -19.2% 3% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage383d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$4 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records