Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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76 0x7685…482c sports 1316 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 215d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,952 (-14%) realized −$4,930 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%806W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 215d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,719
crypto 30% −$326
other 2% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 56% -14.2%
≤30d 209 -8.2% -17.0% 60% 48% -16.9%
≤90d 449 -8.9% -17.6% 61% 48% -16.8%
all 1315 -6.7% -15.6% 61% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 47% -14.5%
10% -23.7% 27% -22.7%
15% -31.1% 14% -30.2%
20% -37.8% 8% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$4,930
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses806 / 509
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1315 / 1316
History coverage215d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 92¢ 54¢ $54 $32 −$22 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $30 +$20 +64%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$23 -47%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $34 +$17 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$7 +26%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +23%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +63%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$36 -93%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $35 +$4 +13%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $22 +$13 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $83 −$7 -8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 −$19 -90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$9 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 −$15 -51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$11 +59%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$29 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $9 +$6 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $58 +$10 +18%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$18 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $19 +$21 +108%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$10 -52%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $85 −$33 -40%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $50 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $32 +$23 +71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$10 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $50 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$17 -68%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $36 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 +$10 +36%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $14 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 92¢ $54 42m
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $53 43m
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 94¢ $50 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $50 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 60¢ $30 2h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 86¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $50 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $55 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 90¢ $50 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 97¢ $56 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $50 9h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $50 9h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 66¢ $34 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $34 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 20h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $27 20h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 75¢ $20 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 25h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 83¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 66¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 66¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 64¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.51 · official $34.13 · 3500 history records