Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x768b…bf0f sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,730 (-14%) realized −$4,676 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,010per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$1,391
14 days+$1,391
30 days+$1,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$82
other 34% −$4,764
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 43% +10.0%
≤30d 7 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 43% +10.0%
≤90d 31 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -25.3%
all 31 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 39% -25.3%
10% -36.1% 39% -32.5%
15% -42.2% 39% -39.0%
20% -47.9% 35% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,346) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$900 vs −$820 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$5,581
Realized−$4,676
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage73d
Avg bet$1,010
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3,822 $3,794 −$28 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 35¢ 34¢ $1,814 $1,787 −$26 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,028 +$1,725 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $361 −$361 -100%
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $531 −$524 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $897 −$886 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $189 −$186 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $793 +$770 +97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $674 +$853 +127%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-08? May 04 $508 +$574 +113%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $511 −$503 -98%
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) Apr 26 $96 −$95 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5 Apr 25 $355 +$367 +103%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $548 −$539 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 Apr 24 $501 +$486 +97%
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $498 −$490 -98%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $2,496 +$2,730 +109%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Apr 17 $1,000 −$986 -99%
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5 Apr 17 $380 +$820 +216%
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $2,045 +$1,558 +76%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) Apr 16 $95 −$93 -98%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2,154 −$2,122 -98%
Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $1,039 −$1,022 -98%
SC Braga vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to Score Apr 13 $317 +$273 +86%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $1,367 −$1,346 -98%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Apr 11 $1,767 −$1,741 -98%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5 Apr 10 $1,405 −$1,383 -98%
CA Juventud vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5 Apr 10 $151 +$60 +40%
SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $572 +$577 +101%
CA Juventud vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $270 −$266 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $1,966 −$1,935 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $742 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,115 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $1,849 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $130 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $13 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $18 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $33 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $16 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $45 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $64 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $13 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $12 38h
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $531 40h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $897 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1,343 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $812 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $873 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $189 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $790 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $258 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $416 4d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 51d
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 49¢ $511 54d
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) BUY FC Porto 48¢ $96 56d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 42¢ $548 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,581.42 · official $5,582.48 (match) · 74 history records