Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x768f…8a9b sports 955 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$527 (+0%) realized +$521 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%545W / 409L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$1,597est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$728
7 days+$753
14 days+$387
30 days−$3,614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$2,486
crypto 10% −$1,982
other 7% −$1,664
world 2% +$4
politics 1% −$730
finance 1% +$627
tech 0% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +8.9% -1.5% 55% 55% -2.6%
≤30d 194 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 53% -17.1%
≤90d 634 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 46% -13.9%
all 954 -1.6% -10.9% 57% 49% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 49% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 41% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 34% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 28% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$165 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$521
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses545 / 409
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,597
Open positions1
Markets (closed)954 / 955
History coverage149d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 954 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 62¢ 64¢ $230 $236 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $302 +$228 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $204 +$309 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $314 +$519 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $531 −$15 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $255 −$251 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $160 +$95 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$37 +90%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $219 −$174 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 +$118 +116%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $315 −$214 -68%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $441 −$435 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $286 +$156 +54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $154 +$132 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$72 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$39 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$263 -86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $214 −$213 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $304 +$204 +67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 +$362 +119%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $303 +$132 +43%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $303 +$135 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$196 +64%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $304 +$295 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $298 +$472 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$484 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $427 +$267 +62%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $314 +$114 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $285 −$283 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $173 −$170 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $278 +$179 +64%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $101 +$57 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $116 +$127 +109%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $101 +$60 +59%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $48 −$30 -62%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $102 −$77 -75%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $41 −$33 -81%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$40 +79%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $233 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $296 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $204 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $833 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $314 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $315 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $201 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 36¢ $200 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $330 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $255 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $255 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $160 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 8¢ $45 37h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $219 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $220 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 18¢ $101 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.56 · official $235.56 (match) · 2448 history records