Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x768f…1ec0 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 891d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$370 (+22%) realized +$367 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip
Net edge+97%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days+$195
14 days+$195
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$531
other 22% −$24
crypto 10% −$69
world 5% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+97.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +125.5% +104.0% 60% 60% -1.6%
≤30d 20 +125.5% +104.0% 60% 60% -1.6%
≤90d 21 +127.4% +105.7% 62% 62% +4.2%
all 24 +117.8% +97.0% 62% 62% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +97.0% 62% +6.4%
10% +78.2% 62% -3.8%
15% +61.0% 62% -13.1%
20% +45.2% 58% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +223% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$62 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

891d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$367
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage891d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ 34¢ $56 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$69 +250%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$31 +118%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$66 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $62 +$68 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $56 +$48 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$94 +94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $77 +$58 +74%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$18 +77%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $39 +$39 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$126 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$75 -74%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $136 +$65 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $60 +$47 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 +$42 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 −$3 -3%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $50 +$82 +165%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Mar 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $60 +$111 +185%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $121 +$81 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $57 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $97 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $28 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $26 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $105 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $40 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $62 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $56 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $193 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $38 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $135 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $42 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $23 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $77 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $77 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $60 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $39 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $127 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $136 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $107 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $95 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $54 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.40 · official $58.30 (match) · 47 history records