Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x768f…c7bd crypto 839 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 235d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,491 (+2%) realized +$1,841 · open −$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%483W / 328L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$359
7 days−$766
14 days−$493
30 days+$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$858
politics 25% −$14
crypto 12% +$1,136
other 8% −$263
finance 6% +$592
sports 0% +$57
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 28% -16.9%
≤30d 57 -0.9% -10.3% 65% 39% -8.0%
≤90d 164 -14.8% -22.9% 60% 37% -7.6%
all 811 -9.5% -18.1% 60% 51% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 51% -7.4%
10% -26.0% 42% -16.3%
15% -33.1% 19% -24.4%
20% -39.7% 11% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$4,183
Realized+$1,841
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses483 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions28
Markets (closed)811 / 839
History coverage236d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $787 $1,441 +$654 (+83%)
Obama arrested before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $408 $410 +$3 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $287 $299 +$12 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $169 $198 +$29 (+17%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 79¢ 97¢ $157 $194 +$36 (+23%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $181 $192 +$11 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $146 $175 +$29 (+20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $105 $164 +$58 (+56%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $126 $146 +$20 (+16%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $787 $134 −$654 (-83%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $72 $99 +$27 (+38%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 81¢ 95¢ $81 $95 +$14 (+18%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 64¢ 92¢ $64 $92 +$28 (+45%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $70 $86 +$16 (+24%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 67¢ 94¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 84¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 55¢ 80¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+45%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? No 54¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 60¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $654 −$250 -38%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $155 −$74 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $71 +$13 +18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $79 +$3 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $182 +$214 +118%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $88 +$31 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $232 −$156 -67%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 15 $200 −$157 -78%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $73 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $77 −$3 -4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $170 +$20 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,297 +$42 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 14 $275 +$10 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,598 −$229 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,088 +$17 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $388 −$14 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $544 −$100 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $136 +$64 +47%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 12 $566 +$9 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $65 −$48 -74%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $286 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $164 −$80 -49%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $19 +$34 +180%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 09 $17,053 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $403 +$40 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $64 +$4 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 07 $442 +$55 +12%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $68 −$47 -69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $756 +$234 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $122 +$101 +83%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $331 +$9 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,001 +$497 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $292 +$18 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $234 +$65 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $167 +$33 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $656 +$126 +19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $485 +$41 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $350 −$156 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $94 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 24¢ $135 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $138 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $156 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 18¢ $37 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 32¢ $57 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 32¢ $7 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $84 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 73¢ $73 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $380 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 4h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $150 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $66 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $33 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $15 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 59¢ $44 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 55¢ $41 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $52 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $21 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 71¢ $71 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 69¢ $97 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $115 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $65 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 60¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,182.77 · official $4,182.79 (match) · 3500 history records