Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
76 0x7693…470f sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,253 (+14%) realized +$1,084 · open +$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +20.6% +9.1% 70% 70% +8.3%
≤30d 23 +20.6% +9.1% 70% 70% +8.3%
≤90d 23 +20.6% +9.1% 70% 70% +8.3%
all 23 +20.6% +9.1% 70% 70% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 70% +8.3%
10% -1.3% 70% -2.1%
15% -10.9% 65% -11.5%
20% -19.6% 61% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$286 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,946
Realized+$1,084
Unrealized+$169
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions19
Markets (closed)23 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 50¢ 74¢ $300 $441 +$141 (+47%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ 56¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 54¢ 54¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets New York Mets 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 39¢ 38¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 56¢ 55¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Miami Marlins 64¢ 85¢ $175 $233 +$58 (+33%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $305 +$306 +100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 24 $202 +$115 +57%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 24 $202 +$106 +52%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $305 −$300 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $304 +$223 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $305 +$334 +109%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 +$137 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $303 −$300 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $303 +$173 +57%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $304 −$300 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $304 −$304 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $609 +$612 +100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 +$199 +98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 21 $202 +$115 +57%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $203 +$232 +114%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 21 $202 +$135 +67%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 21 $199 +$101 +51%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $304 +$262 +86%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 21 $201 +$99 +49%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 21 $204 +$68 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $305 −$300 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $102 44m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $102 44m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 57m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $304 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $304 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $304 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $203 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $304 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $204 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 64¢ $177 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $202 22h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $202 27h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $305 27h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 53¢ $203 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $305 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $303 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 59¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,945.98 · official $2,946.04 (match) · 69 history records