Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7697…56be other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-15%) realized −$64 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$99
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$27
crypto 31% −$51
sports 7% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 40% -34.4%
≤30d 59 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 42% -26.5%
≤90d 59 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 42% -26.5%
all 59 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 42% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 42% -26.5%
10% -21.3% 39% -33.5%
15% -28.9% 37% -40.0%
20% -35.9% 31% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $12 +$18 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$6 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 23h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 23h
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 39h
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 2d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.82 · official $57.03 · 143 history records