Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7698…57c0 sports 1904 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-1%) realized +$362 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%842W / 928L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$344
14 days+$790
30 days+$822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$422
other 2% +$18
crypto 1% +$36
weather 1% −$74
world 0% −$37
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +68.2% +52.2% 67% 67% +58.2%
≤30d 444 +31.1% +18.6% 57% 57% +19.2%
≤90d 1568 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 48% -5.0%
all 1770 +3.3% -6.6% 48% 46% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 46% -6.4%
10% -15.5% 44% -15.4%
15% -23.7% 42% -23.6%
20% -31.1% 39% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$362
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses842 / 928
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1770 / 1904
History coverage111d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1770 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Over 24¢ 50¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+108%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 42¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Over 26¢ 43¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+65%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 49¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Angels 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 +$33 +325%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$25 +484%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $5 +$14 +276%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 11h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $5 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $5 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $5 11h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $5 11h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $5 11h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $5 11h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $5 12h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $5 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $5 12h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $5 12h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $5 12h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $5 12h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $5 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $5 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $5 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $5 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 23¢ $7 35h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 10¢ $5 35h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 6¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.27 · official $211.27 (match) · 2909 history records