Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x769c…3d88 other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,574 (+9%) realized +$600 · open +$974
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$222
14 days+$272
30 days+$1,601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$458
politics 20% +$1,158
crypto 4% −$170
world 1% −$56
sports 1% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +40.1% +26.8% 67% 67% +31.6%
≤30d 6 +118.9% +98.1% 67% 67% +121.7%
≤90d 12 +28.1% +15.9% 42% 42% -2.2%
all 21 -9.3% -17.9% 29% 29% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 29% -6.3%
10% -25.8% 29% -15.3%
15% -32.9% 29% -23.5%
20% -39.5% 29% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,124 vs −$416 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$3,641
Realized+$600
Unrealized+$974
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)21 / 42
History coverage518d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 28¢ 44¢ $561 $884 +$323 (+58%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $314 $668 +$354 (+113%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 20¢ 64¢ $200 $636 +$436 (+217%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $249 $212 −$36 (-15%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 49¢ 50¢ $195 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $200 $168 −$32 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $204 $165 −$39 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $87 $119 +$31 (+36%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $74 $89 +$15 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $111 $83 −$28 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $79 $65 −$15 (-18%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $42 $63 +$21 (+50%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $29 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? Yes 13¢ $65 $27 −$38 (-59%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $24 −$4 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $117 +$102 +87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $258 +$147 +57%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $113 −$27 -24%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $16 +$51 +329%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $500 +$1,329 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-29? Apr 23 $151 −$151 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Apr 23 $5,624 +$4,627 +82%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Apr 23 $5,040 −$5,040 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $50 −$29 -59%
Will Johannes Kaiser come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chile Dec 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Dec 29 $420 −$10 -2%
Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilea Dec 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidentia Dec 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president Dec 29 $355 −$355 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Nov 29 $320 −$83 -26%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 29 $511 +$487 +95%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 16 $163 −$162 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $194 24m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 34¢ $25 48m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes $12 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 21¢ $7 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 29¢ $8 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes $18 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $104 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $107 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $258 27h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 48¢ $2 31h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 31h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 12¢ $8 41h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $0 41h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 15¢ $5 46h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 15¢ $5 46h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $1 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $58 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 14¢ $6 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 14¢ $5 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 14¢ $5 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 14¢ $10 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $10 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $17 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 12¢ $12 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 20¢ $11 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,640.61 · official $3,640.71 (match) · 186 history records