Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x769f…c265 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$34
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$34
other 24% +$2
politics 4% $0
sports 1% −$2
weather 1% −$7
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 32% 11% -6.2%
≤90d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 32% 11% -6.2%
all 43 -1.1% -10.6% 35% 7% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 7% -7.4%
10% -19.1% 5% -16.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -24.3%
20% -34.1% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage474d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 87¢ 87¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $81 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $80 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $54 +$38 +69%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $52 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $12 +$2 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $49 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $52 $0 -1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 10 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5? Mar 07 $14 −$7 -47%
Wichita State vs. North Texas Mar 03 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 4? Mar 03 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $25 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $13 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $42 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $81 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $44 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $16 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $79 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $92 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $54 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.04 · official $80.04 (match) · 134 history records