Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
76 0x76a2…6061 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$21
politics 30% −$14
sports 6% +$38
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 113 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage130d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 19 $259 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $276 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $291 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $312 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 21 $503 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $298 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $311 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $331 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $271 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $329 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $287 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $313 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $265 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $261 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $306 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $322 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $283 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 5h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 35h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $259 35h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $60 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $58 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1 14d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $48 14d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $304 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $304 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 26d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $320 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $324 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $324 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $276 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $276 29d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $271 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 372 history records