Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76a5…555c sports 781 markets active 13h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$743 (-14%) realized −$743 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%372W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$999
other 14% +$264
world 2% −$16
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 40% -13.3%
≤90d 496 -6.0% -15.0% 57% 46% -25.8%
all 751 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 40% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 40% -23.0%
10% -24.0% 33% -30.4%
15% -31.3% 25% -37.1%
20% -38.0% 20% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$743
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses372 / 379
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions30
Markets (closed)751 / 781
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 90¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 93¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $1 +$1 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1 +$1 +107%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $4 $0 -2%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 20 $25 −$1 -3%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Kings vs. Flames Apr 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 20 $115 −$115 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $35 +$24 +68%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 19 $5 +$6 +114%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 18 $40 +$34 +86%
Sharks vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 Apr 18 $70 +$66 +94%
Busan: Sho Shimabukuro vs Ilia Simakin Apr 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-03-31? Apr 14 $4 $0 +8%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $2 $0 -13%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-04? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-01? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $7 +$5 +77%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $3 −$1 -17%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $2 $0 -24%
Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw? Apr 14 $4 −$2 -39%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kosovo vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-02? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 13h
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 15h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 16h
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 16h
Bill Gates charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 16h
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 16h
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 4d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 10d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.39 · official $71.39 (match) · 3500 history records