Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76a8…b477 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$1
other 24% −$3
politics 23% +$1
finance 7% −$2
culture 6% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 -2.0% -11.3% 25% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -11.1%
all 38 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -10.4%
10% -22.6% 0% -19.0%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage306d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $37 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $38 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 22 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $35 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $35 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $33 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $37 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $3 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 30d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 181d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 181d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 186d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 262d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL No 80¢ $6 262d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 79¢ $6 262d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 262d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 264d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 264d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL No 77¢ $6 264d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 78¢ $6 265d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 98¢ $6 265d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 98¢ $6 265d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $6 265d
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $6 266d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.26 · official $35.26 (match) · 239 history records