Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

76 0x76a8…19f1 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$29 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$356per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.8%	-10.3%	50%	0%	-10.3%
≤30d	4	+1.3%	-8.3%	75%	0%	-8.0%
≤90d	4	+1.3%	-8.3%	75%	0%	-8.0%
all	4	+1.3%	-8.3%	75%	0%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.3%	0%	-8.0%
10%	-17.1%	0%	-16.8%
15%	-25.1%	0%	-24.8%
20%	-32.4%	0%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.83 per $1 lost it wins $5.83

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$275

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage14d

Avg bet$356

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026?	No	92¢	92¢	$276	$275	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Jun 26	$320	$0	+0%
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Jun 26	$314	−$5	-2%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals	Jun 14	$432	+$28	+6%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Jun 14	$435	+$3	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$277	1h
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	SELL No	95¢	$320	45h
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$320	46h
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$309	47h
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$314	2d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals	BUY No	94¢	$432	13d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	SELL No	93¢	$438	13d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$435	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.40 · official $275.40 (match) · 9 history records