Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
76 0x76a9…5552 sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$135 (+9%) realized +$146 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$158
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$137
other 11% +$17
world 1% −$13
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +85.5% +67.8% 68% 68% +50.5%
≤30d 40 +36.5% +23.5% 50% 50% +27.5%
≤90d 40 +36.5% +23.5% 50% 50% +27.5%
all 40 +36.5% +23.5% 50% 50% +27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 50% +27.5%
10% +11.6% 50% +15.3%
15% +0.9% 50% +4.1%
20% -9.0% 50% -6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1,089
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions25
Markets (closed)40 / 66
History coverage12d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+2%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 35¢ 34¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 42¢ 42¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 57¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 40¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 61¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $12 +$8 +67%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 +$45 +550%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $16 +$13 +83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $14 +$25 +172%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 +$13 +206%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $12 +$11 +93%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +180%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 +$8 +65%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $18 +$16 +86%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$14 +172%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 +$19 +474%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$21 +291%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +262%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 61¢ $20 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 40¢ $31 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $36 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $36 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $46 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 42¢ $46 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 2h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $41 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $51 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $51 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $66 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $51 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 62¢ $51 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $36 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $56 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $81 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $92 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,088.68 · official $1,088.68 (match) · 87 history records