Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x76aa…58ce sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,813 (+10%) realized +$1,813 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,178
7 days+$2,037
14 days+$2,307
30 days+$2,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1,696
other 27% +$207
politics 15% −$249
world 9% +$101
finance 1% −$19
economics 1% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +41.8% +28.3% 77% 77% +22.9%
≤30d 25 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 60% +13.2%
≤90d 45 -11.5% -20.0% 49% 49% +0.2%
all 64 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 50% -0.6%
10% -21.9% 44% -10.1%
15% -29.4% 30% -18.8%
20% -36.4% 20% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$113 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,813
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage562d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $608 +$482 +79%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $505 −$344 -68%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $204 +$503 +246%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $304 +$239 +78%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,006 +$228 +23%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $305 −$201 -66%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $204 +$309 +152%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $404 +$202 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$115 +23%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $302 +$108 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $403 +$130 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $506 +$355 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $605 +$90 +15%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -15%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 FC Bayern München? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 08 $169 −$96 -56%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $708 +$171 +24%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $202 −$163 -80%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $181 +$40 +22%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $155 +$29 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $121 +$33 +27%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 FC Bayern München? Apr 28 $6 −$2 -37%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Hanwha Eagles Apr 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $150 −$144 -96%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $400 −$182 -46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? Apr 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $200 +$53 +26%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $53 +$47 +88%
Will Lithuania win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $18 −$5 -28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $283 +$128 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 28 $159 −$87 -55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Mar 28 $217 +$84 +39%
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first? Mar 28 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 25 $96 +$68 +71%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $500 +$464 +93%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $1,100 −$279 -25%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 17 $200 +$201 +101%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $600 +$232 +39%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $4 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,090 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $608 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $162 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $303 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $37 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $707 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $304 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,233 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No 16¢ $104 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 45¢ $305 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,006 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $204 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,006 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $404 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $619 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 100¢ $411 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 73¢ $302 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $304 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $533 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $403 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $861 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $506 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 86¢ $694 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 74¢ $605 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL San Francisco Giants 99¢ $761 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 65¢ $505 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records