Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76aa…c4f4 other 18 markets active 22h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-6%) realized −$419 · open +$334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$404
finance 34% +$179
world 15% +$155
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-72.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -69.1% -72.0% 20% 20% -99.3%
≤30d 5 -69.1% -72.0% 20% 20% -99.3%
≤90d 5 -69.1% -72.0% 20% 20% -99.3%
all 5 -69.1% -72.0% 20% 20% -99.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.0% 20% -99.3%
10% -74.7% 20% -99.4%
15% -77.1% 20% -99.4%
20% -79.4% 20% -99.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$102 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,404
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$334
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)5 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $200 $347 +$147 (+74%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $200 $290 +$90 (+45%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 38¢ 55¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 66¢ 88¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 83¢ 92¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? No 43¢ 44¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? No 27¢ 22¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,403.59 · official $1,404.01 (match) · 22 history records