Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76af…f17e sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$920 (-28%) realized −$968 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$664
other 34% −$249
crypto 1% +$9
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 24 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 38% -42.4%
all 62 -6.2% -15.1% 39% 37% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 37% -39.4%
10% -23.2% 34% -45.2%
15% -30.7% 34% -50.5%
20% -37.4% 31% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$35 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$968
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 38
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions11
Markets (closed)62 / 73
History coverage349d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 64¢ 92¢ $147 $213 +$66 (+45%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $130 $98 −$32 (-25%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 32¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+91%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-47%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 +$4 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $4 +$6 +150%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $4 +$6 +150%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $9 +$11 +122%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $128 −$63 -49%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $31 +$18 +60%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $10 +$40 +376%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $59 −$55 -93%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 19 $12 −$7 -58%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $5 −$4 -67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $8 +$12 +156%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $11 +$9 +89%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 12 $297 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Apr 12 $1,223 −$578 -47%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO5) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 11 $60 +$9 +14%
Will PARIVISION win ESL One Birmingham 2026? Mar 31 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Tundra Esports win ESL One Birmingham 2026? Mar 29 $17 −$8 -50%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $4 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 29 $8 +$4 +55%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $5 +$10 +178%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $12 +$8 +67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $10 +$10 +96%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Mar 28 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Team Yandex win ESL One Birmingham 2026? Mar 28 $30 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 26 $4 +$2 +47%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Mar 26 $10 +$10 +92%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO1) Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 19? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 19? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghost of Yotei win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Mar 26 $92 −$92 -100%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will PARIVISION win The International 2025 Tournament? Mar 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Plasma >$6B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Mar 26 $132 −$132 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) Nov 29 $28 −$12 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL ex-HEROIC 7¢ $0 33d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $4 33d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY ex-HEROIC 35¢ $2 33d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 40¢ $3 34d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 40¢ $1 35d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 27¢ $4 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? BUY No 28¢ $3 47d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 47d
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 47d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 47d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $9 64d
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Aurora 30¢ $6 64d
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $4 64d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Virtus.pro 21¢ $10 70d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $31 70d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 54¢ $11 70d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage SELL Team Liquid 48¢ $65 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.62 · official $433.62 (match) · 245 history records