Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76b5…8cba crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$413 (-3%) realized −$413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate80%101W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$166
14 days−$386
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +3.0% -6.8% 84% 84% -12.3%
≤30d 126 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 78% -12.9%
≤90d 126 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 78% -12.9%
all 126 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 78% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 78% -12.9%
10% -18.4% 32% -21.3%
15% -26.3% 10% -28.9%
20% -33.5% 6% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$121 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses101 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage24d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $108 +$30 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $70 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $67 +$26 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $54 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $54 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $53 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$37 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $108 −$107 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $109 +$29 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $119 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $116 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $112 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $108 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $130 +$32 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $125 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $118 +$67 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $133 +$26 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $128 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $159 −$159 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $24 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $54 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $48 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $13 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $71 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $71 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $70 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $67 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $66 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $34 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 532 history records