Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x76b8…4c9c other 326 markets active 5d ago coverage 155d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,843 (+16%) realized +$9,898 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%186W / 136L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days+$79
30 days+$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$6,477
culture 2% −$53
tech 0% −$39
world 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.7% -35.4% 60% 40% -15.2%
≤30d 79 -29.9% -36.5% 47% 27% -1.0%
≤90d 217 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 30% -2.7%
all 322 +14.4% +3.5% 58% 34% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.5% 34% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.4% 28% -9.4%
15% -15.5% 20% -18.1%
20% -23.8% 14% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$47 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,764
Realized+$9,898
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses186 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)322 / 326
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $899 $907 +$8 (+1%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $746 $757 +$12 (+2%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $78 $94 +$16 (+20%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 91¢ 5¢ $95 $5 −$90 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $188 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $55 −$38 -69%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $72 +$9 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $107 +$12 +12%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 06 $32 +$26 +80%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 06 $48 +$2 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $276 +$16 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 05 $56 +$14 +25%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $137 +$47 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $769 +$7 +1%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 05 $9 +$6 +70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 04 $52 −$13 -26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $55 +$23 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 03 $474 +$20 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? Jun 03 $170 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $196 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $264 +$39 +15%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $55 +$5 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $605 +$18 +3%
43 million or more views Jun 01 $170 +$6 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 31 $475 +$9 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $985 +$42 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 31 $2 −$1 -60%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $36 +$13 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $44 +$51 +114%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $64 +$9 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 24 $1,001 +$472 +47%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 22 $423 −$4 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6 May 22 $16 −$15 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 May 21 $79 +$4 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 May 21 $180 +$140 +78%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 21 $396 −$109 -28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 May 20 $8 +$3 +39%
Will MrBeast's next video get 58 million or more views on day 4? May 20 $63 +$17 +27%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4 May 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will MrBeast's video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 4? May 19 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Luxembourg come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Serbia come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2 May 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Sweden be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will San Marino come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 19 $9 +$24 +266%
Will Bulgaria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $51 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 99¢ $158 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 11¢ $27 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 14¢ $41 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 83¢ $4 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $72 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 18¢ $45 5d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 74¢ $42 9d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 70¢ $36 9d
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 10d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 98¢ $98 10d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest dome BUY No 99¢ $842 10d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee SELL Yes 85¢ $70 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY Yes 67¢ $56 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee BUY No 95¢ $172 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee BUY No 94¢ $104 12d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 88¢ $18 12d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 90¢ $29 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 SELL Yes 99¢ $184 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $122 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,763.65 · official $1,763.70 (match) · 3500 history records