Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x76bf…9a27 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$98 (+7%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.0% -1.4% 69% 56% -2.3%
≤30d 16 +9.0% -1.4% 69% 56% -2.3%
≤90d 16 +9.0% -1.4% 69% 56% -2.3%
all 16 +9.0% -1.4% 69% 56% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 56% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 56% -11.6%
15% -19.5% 38% -20.2%
20% -27.4% 25% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$44 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $203 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $203 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $102 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$21 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $99 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $98 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $171 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records