Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76c4…3463 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$107 (+15%) realized +$104 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$21
other 6% −$32
sports 2% −$7
culture 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -35.5% -41.7% 22% 22% -18.4%
≤30d 37 -35.5% -41.7% 22% 22% -18.4%
≤90d 37 -35.5% -41.7% 22% 22% -18.4%
all 37 -35.5% -41.7% 22% 22% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.7% 22% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.3% 22% -26.2%
15% -52.3% 22% -33.3%
20% -57.0% 22% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$15 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+88%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$40 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$80 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$101 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 17 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$24 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$60 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$64 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$32 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +127%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $134 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 23¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 25¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.47 · official $11.47 (match) · 77 history records