Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76c5…a4e7 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$493 (-27%) realized −$493 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$133
14 days−$133
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$456
crypto 45% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -43.5% -48.9% 31% 31% -34.3%
≤30d 20 -43.4% -48.8% 30% 30% -36.8%
≤90d 36 -43.3% -48.7% 28% 28% -47.8%
all 46 -37.2% -43.1% 35% 35% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 35% -43.1%
10% -48.6% 30% -48.5%
15% -53.6% 26% -53.5%
20% -58.1% 24% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage107d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$61 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $36 −$10 -28%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $39 −$38 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $29 −$28 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $29 +$38 +129%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $21 +$18 +88%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $168 −$165 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $75 +$68 +91%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $72 −$16 -22%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $24 +$33 +134%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $30 −$5 -16%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $35 −$34 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $94 −$93 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $50 +$56 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 03 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 03 $27 +$28 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 03 $37 +$20 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 03 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 03 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 03 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 03 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $73 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 26¢ $10 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 34¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records