Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76c6…be09 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$274 (+2%) realized +$122 · open +$152
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%20W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$285
sports 2% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 17 -8.4% -17.2% 88% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 20 -5.7% -14.6% 90% 5% -8.1%
all 22 -3.0% -12.3% 91% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 9% -8.1%
10% -20.7% 5% -16.9%
15% -28.3% 5% -24.9%
20% -35.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$677) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$122 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$6,018
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses20 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)22 / 34
History coverage98d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,981 $1,989 +$8 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $910 $974 +$64 (+7%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $599 $643 +$43 (+7%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $609 $613 +$4 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $533 $529 −$4 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $250 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $242 $246 +$3 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $203 $218 +$15 (+7%)
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $182 $188 +$5 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $184 $184 +$1 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $61 $64 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $962 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? Jun 01 $58 +$1 +3%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31? Jun 01 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $63 +$2 +4%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? Jun 01 $69 +$2 +3%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $402 +$10 +2%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $677 +$18 +3%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $660 +$35 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 01 $717 +$21 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $864 +$52 +6%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,060 +$64 +6%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,272 +$95 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 30 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? May 01 $561 +$29 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? May 01 $158 +$14 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? Apr 01 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 22 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 53m
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,596 55m
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $128 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $151 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $75 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $102 1h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $460 1h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 1h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,017.56 · official $6,017.56 (match) · 155 history records