Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x76c9…71bd
other · 56 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$6 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)32 / 56
History coverage546d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 24 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 26¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $1 $0 +38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 +$4 +402%
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Sora Matsushima Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 09 $1 $0 +42%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +144%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $4 +$1 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $23 +$1 +6%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
VEO 4 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $1 $0 +4%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 07 $1 $0 +9%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $2 +$3 +170%
Chinese or Russian athlete kicked out of 2026 Winter Games for doping? Feb 23 $1 $0 +20%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Feb 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? Feb 11 $5 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 02 $1 +$1 +82%
Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days? Feb 01 $2 $0 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Feb 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 01 $42 +$1 +2%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? Jan 13 $1 $0 +41%
Will OpenAI sue Elon Musk before 2025? Jan 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -98%
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Dec 15 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$9
tech 31% +$3
politics 26% $0
world 4% −$3
sports 2% −$1
finance 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $1 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 26d
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? BUY No 16¢ $1 68d
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $1 68d
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Sora Matsushima BUY Matsushima 39¢ $1 68d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 72d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 94¢ $23 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 96d
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +60.0% +44.7% 50% 50% +44.7%
≤90d 13 +4.5% -5.5% 54% 46% -8.6%
all 32 -1.3% -10.7% 66% 34% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 34% -13.5%
10% -19.3% 25% -21.8%
15% -27.1% 25% -29.3%
20% -34.2% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.64 · official $44.64 (match) · 86 history records