Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x76c9…628f world 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$1,417 (-13%) realized −$1,417 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,571per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2,148
world 45% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -41.6% -47.2% 0% 0% -47.2%
≤30d 1 -41.6% -47.2% 0% 0% -47.2%
≤90d 7 +58.4% +43.3% 29% 29% -27.3%
all 7 +58.4% +43.3% 29% 29% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.3% 29% -27.3%
10% +29.6% 29% -34.2%
15% +17.1% 14% -40.6%
20% +5.6% 14% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$784 vs −$746 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,417
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage81d
Avg bet$1,571
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5,000 −$2,081 -42%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 13 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $500 −$106 -21%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 13 $1,000 −$225 -22%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1,000 −$67 -7%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 08 $150 +$850 +567%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $2,100 +$719 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,219 2h
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,000 74d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $700 74d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes $394 74d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes $500 74d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $775 74d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,000 74d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY Yes 14¢ $250 76d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 79d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $999 79d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,500 79d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,500 79d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $933 79d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,000 79d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,000 79d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 36¢ $2,819 80d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,500 80d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 27¢ $500 80d
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 80d
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 80d
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? BUY Yes 15¢ $35 80d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records