Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
76 0x76ce…d3ec other 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,587 (+1%) realized +$1,584 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%26W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,252per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$16
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$1,652
politics 34% −$63
sports 22% −$24
world 3% +$2
crypto 2% +$3
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 122 +4.1% -5.8% 21% 14% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 14% -8.6%
10% -14.8% 14% -17.4%
15% -23.1% 13% -25.3%
20% -30.6% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,871) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$10 · ×9.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,084
Realized+$1,584
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,252
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $838 $841 +$3 (+0%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $243 $243 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,780 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,946 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,190 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,432 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,417 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $594 +$2 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $4,782 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,220 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 19 $762 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,882 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $734 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $912 +$4 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $541 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $4,083 −$4 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $6,758 −$7 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,378 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,140 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2,171 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $1,479 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $4,599 −$5 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $2,427 −$4 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $2,385 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $2,390 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $243 21m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 3h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $429 27h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 29h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $532 43h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $532 46h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $287 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $287 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $509 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $510 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $357 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $358 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $234 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $235 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $838 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 13d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,473 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,475 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,473 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,468 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,470 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,474 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,240 19d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,221 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,222 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,083.86 · official $1,083.86 (match) · 424 history records